Odds for who’s in/out of the AEW Continental Classic field
Today, we're analyzing storyline trends and context to predict who will be announced on the Selection Special Wednesday at 12pmCT/1pmET
(This is an expansion of my thoughts that were posted on Reddit). It’s still not Wednesday night, and you know what that means: we still don’t know who will be participating in the first ever AEW Continental Classic round robin tournament. Much like everyone else, I’m also impatiently waiting for the rest of the field to get announced, so I’d like to take some time to have some fun with this impatience. AEW’s first ever round robin tourney has gotten a lot of buzz from within the fanbase, ranging from excitement to curiosity, with most of that curiosity surrounding who the field will be made up of.
Now, with tomorrow bringing us the Selection Special stream, I’d like to offer up some perspectives on who are the best bets to be among the final 8 wrestlers who will be announced for the field.
Currently, the announced field so far is:
Bryan Danielson
Andrade El Idolo
Mark Briscoe
Eddie Kingston
A fantastic field so far imo. All 4 men are widely loved by the wrestling audience and are capable of constructing fantastic matches on a whim, so this is shaping up nicely so far. As for the below mentioned, here’s how this will work: I’ll include one name for who is trending upwards to be included, and for who is trending downwards to be included, based on like 40% logic & reasoning and 60% vibes. Also it give you all more opportunities for max shaming me when I inevitably get the field wrong.
Not everyone’s odds are exactly equal, and I’m taking the breadcrumbs of info we have surrounding the tourney to piece this together, so consider this a fun think piece rather than a hard hitting journalistic analysis. With that said, let’s begin!
Trending Up: Konosuke Takeshita: this is as close to a lock for the CC as we’re going to get, the main reason being Takeshita has openly stated (through X/Twitter) a lifelong dream of his growing up was to be a Triple Crown champion wherever he wrestled. Plus, DCF/Golden Jets have hit a bit of a natural checkpoint in their storyline, so a stop in the CC is definitely not just plausible, but I’d say probable.
Trending Down: Jay White: after Full Gear’s main event, Jay White should be absolutely livid with the result, not only having his default-win overturned, but losing to a one legged MJF with help from the dynamite diamond ring. So for one, I believe this story isn’t over yet, but there’s a more practical reason I have as well: the NJPW Strong title is on the line as a prize for the CC winner, and Jay White is banned from NJPW (kayfabe). If TK is true to his word that he wants the CC winner to represent AEW at NJPW shows, this would knock Jay out of contention for this.
Trending Up: Jon Moxley: “Top stars” doesn’t get any bigger than the ace of AEW, and Jon Moxley has been such a team player, plus he comes with a baked in connection to NJPW, that this is more plausible than on initial viewing. To add: he’s also got some free time now following his decisive loss to Orange Cassidy. With the BCC/Best Friends feud now seemingly building towards HOOK/Wheeler Yuta, Moxley is actually more available than we realize to join the field.
Trending Down: MJF: Any potential for MJF to pull an Okada or SANADA for the G1 and join the field as the world champion were decidedly dashed early Monday when it was reported MJF suffered a hip injury during the Full Gear main event. While he’s not expected to miss any time, he’s still neck deep in the AEW world title storyline now featuring Samoa Joe as well, so he should probably take the CC off anyway, if nothing else to just heal up.
Trending Up: Evil Uno: This one is almost entirely based on Uno tweeting that we’re going to get him in 20 minute classics and we’re gonna love it. This makes him now the 2nd person besides Takeshita to openly talk about being in the field, whether jokingly or not. He’s not busy, he can be a serviceable pin eater, plus he’s also a pretty solid wrestler too, so sure why not.
Trending Down: Darby Allin: Darby has been a workhorse for AEW for as long as he’s been in the company, so no one would bat an eye if they were to see him here. Unfortunately, one of the most popular wrestlers for AEW also has a wild dream to climb Mt Everest by spring/summer of next year, and it’s my belief he’s going to begin serious training now that the Copeland/Patriarchy feud has hit a checkpoint following Full Gear. So it’s my belief this will knock him out of commission until most likely next year, when he’ll show up for the tail end of Sting’s retirement tour.
Equal odds, trending slightly up: Daniel Garcia: Garcia is a tough one to gauge. As of recently, he’s been involved in a storyline with the remnants of the Jericho Appreciation Society, which to sum up revolves around dissension between him and his friends. But an interesting development has taken place since this started: a budding romance angle between Angelo Parker and Ruby Soho has gotten rather over with the crowd, so now most of 2.0’s focus has been around this in recent weeks, while Garcia has been on a quiet prove-yourself journey that he belongs as a world title contender. It’s a great underdog angle, which would be a perfect story to weave into the CC if his part in the 2.0 story is going on the back burner. He’ll put on great matches but most likely end up a pin eater as he hasn’t won a singles match in almost a month.
Equal odds, trending slightly down: Miro: This is kind of the inverse of Daniel Garcia in that storyline threads actually could lead him TO the CC, due to Andrade’s entrance in the tourney. Miro is likely out for blood because Andrade has recruited the managerial services of CJ Perry, which means he could join just to chase him down. But there’s a catch that casts doubt on this train of thought: as of now, Miro has yet to lose since his redebut on AEW television, and I just don’t see his first losses taking place in the CC, even if by Andrade. And I also don’t see him as a viable winner or as a player to make a deep run in the tourney either. So for story purposes I can see him as an entrant, but taking the meta factors into account, prospects of his inclusion are dim to me.
Trending Up: RUSH: We’re leaning in to somewhat tinfoil territor for this reasoning but bear with me. Besides, this possibility didn’t register to me until earlier today, when RUSH posted a vignette about him being ready for any challenge ahead of him. It’s a pretty standard hype vignette, but what piqued my interest is that it didn’t feature anybody else from LFI in it, just RUSH himself. Having been attached at the hip by LFI since their recent redebut, this timing leads me to believe RUSH is now not an impossible entrant into the CC following Full Gear, when a tag team of him and Dralistico failed to win the ladder match for the Tag Team titles.
Trending Down: Kenny Omega: Frankly, my reasoning for this thought process is pretty straightforward: I don’t think Kenny’s body can handle a mini-G1 Climax. Even with less matches streteched out weekly than the standard G1, Kenny’s been a very busy man lately, including wrestling twice in 3 days which included a multi man street fight. For long term prospects, I’d prefer if he just sat this out and cook a storyline across AEW television, most likely continuing a tag run with Chris Jericho as the Golden Jets.
Wild card, but let it ride: Adam Copeland: Truly in tinfoil territory now, but this could be the best way to give Adam Copeland his initial wish coming to AEW of wrestling as many foes as possible. He would not win many matches, nor should he, but it could be a means of keeping your star signing happy by making good on a promise you made him. Now, this also equally isn’t likely because his storyline with Christian Cage is definitely not over yet, plus with Darby Allin going off to train for Mt Everest soon, Copeland might be taking the forefront in that story thread instead. But it’s an interesting idea, who’s to say he can’t do both the CC and then deal with Christian afterwards?
Wild card, so take it slow: Kyle Fletcher: Kyle Fletcher has been used very interestingly this year with AEW. Most of his booking lately has been through pivots and rearrangements due to injuries to his tag team partner, Mark Davis. It’s clear that Tony Khan likes him though, and wants to keep him on AEW television as much as possible, hence his inclusion into the Don Callis Family. But the main reason I’m bearish on his inclusion is due to Takeshita’s inclusion already. I don’t believe they will use 2 members of the DCF in the tourney, and if they’re choosing one, it should be Takeshita anyway. His inclusion makes sense, but I’d hold off on this bet for now.
Wild card, even odds through and through: Orange Cassidy: the second ace of AEW (as anointed by me just now) is the most interesting man in AEW at the moment. He secured his win against Jon Moxley at Full Gear, he has stated his reign feels validated now, and now he’s a man who’s ready for the next chapter. And what is that next chapter? No clue, but the CC makes a lot of sense for him to enter as that next step. He’s the very definition of a fighting champion, the most active fighting champ this side of Zack Sabre Jr, and he’s also someone who can represent the company across the globe for NJPW, even having dates there earlier this year. BCC/Best Friends still isn’t over, as there were teases after the match at Full Gear, but that focus appears to be HOOK and Wheeler Yuta centered as mentioned earlier, so I think there’s a very distinct possibility he takes a backseat to mentor HOOK while he competes in the tourney. The only point I have for why this won’t happen: OC may just want to take a break instead. My guy has been through it this year, so he could just not enter and it would be totally fine.
A few guys I can see as playing the pin-eater and overall job guy role who could steal an upset or two, so I consider them trending up: Komander, Ethan Page, Jay Lethal, a returning Bandido, and Ortiz.
These are the names I feel confident will NOT be in the CC due to extenuating circumstances, so I consider them trending down: Sammy Guevara (injury, but most likely paternity leave as well), Brian Cage (paternity leave), Jack Perry (suspension, but likely returning after the CC), Mike Santana (who the fuck knows, he won a grudge match vs Ortiz and hasn’t been seen since).
The Continental Classic kicks off in 24 hours, and we will know the rest of the field in 15 hours as of this writing. Overall, if I had to guess the field for shaming purposes when I inevitably get it wrong, it will be:
Bryan Danielson
Andrade El Idolo
Mark Briscoe
Eddie Kingston
Konosuke Takeshita
Jon Moxley
RUSH
Daniel Garcia
Orange Cassidy
Evil Uno
Komander
Ortiz
I can’t express in many other in different ways how excited I am for the Contintental Classic, just with all the possibilities and combinations of AEW talent that could be entered to give us the best possible matches. It’s a great time to be a fan, and I will be watching with everyone else just as excited as me at 12pm CT to see the rest of the field announced. I’ll see you all then!